Belmont Stakes 2024: New Venue, New Distance, New Contenders
The Bissett Perspective: Belmont breakdown, and prediction
Another year of Triple Crown racing is ready to commence this evening @ estimated post time 6:41pm ET. We have already had two different winners in each leg of these races with Mystic Dan taking the Kentucky Derby, and Sieze the Gray leading the way in the Preakness. Will we see a third different winner today? Mystic Dan will be the only horse to run all three legs of the Triple Crown journey. Not only does he get a rematch with Sieze the Gray, but will also be joined by fellow Kentucky Derby contenders, Sierra Leone (9/5 Favorite), Resilience, Dornoch, and Honor Marie. What makes this race a little more intriguing are the newcomers that will be joining the field. Antiquarian, The Wine Steward, and Protective finished the Peter Pan Stakes 1st, 2nd and 3rd respectfully. Lastly, but surely not least will be the entry of the Todd Pletcher trained, Mindframe. This horse has only ran twice in its young career and has been completely dominant in both of those outings with a combined total of 20 1/2 lengths of victory between them.
After picking 3 out of the top 4 finishers in the Kentucky Derby and going 1-2 in the Preakness, this race could be a humbling experience. The biggest factor in handicapping this race is going to be the change in distance. Going from a mile and half to just a mile and quarter really changes the running style of all of these contenders. The front runners don’t have to worry about running out of steam during the final 1/4 mile stretch. While at the same time the closing horses don’t get that extra 1/4 mile stretch to chase down the leaders. Because of this component nearly half the field will be out of the running as early as the halfway point. The other half of the field however will potentially provide one of the most thrilling finishes in the Belmont Stakes history. Which half of the field does your horse fall under? Take a look below!
1.) Seize the Gray: The closing abilities of this horse in the Pat Day Mile is what impressed me the most when heading into the Preakness. That momentum continued as they went wire to wire to lead the Preakness by no less than 2 lengths on a muddy track non the less! The shortened distance only improves this horses chances to stay in contention and will be finishing in the top half of runners in this race.
2.) Resilience: Once we get into multiple starts for a horse we can begin to see a trend. With this being the 8th career start we can see that he runs well in lengths between a mile to a mile and eighth. He has also shown better in fields of Grade II or lower. Its pretty clear this horse is over matched and unable to compete even in the shortened distance of the race.
3.) Mystik Dan: This will be a true test of this horses endurance. The only runner of all three Triple Crown races without any rest will most likely determine if they make the board or not on this trip. I do think that the shortened distance actually increases their odds to remain in contention right down to the wire though.
4.) The Wine Steward: Last time out finished 2nd in the Peter Pan Stakes to No. 5 Antiquarian. Having finished in the top 2 in all six career starts. They will need to have a nearly perfect trip this time around to continue that trend. Even with the shortened distance, this horse will be devoured by the pack down the home stretch of the race.
5.) Antiquarian: The winner of the Peter Pan Stakes will look to build on that momentum heading into this race. However, the last time this horse competed against the Grade I caliber field they were completely dominated by the likes of Catching Freedom (3rd place Derby finisher), Honor Marie (8th place Derby Finisher), and Tuscan Gold (4th place Preakness finisher). Neither of those horses have shown they can compete with this field making it hard to put much faith in any of the Peter Pan Stakes runners in this race.
6.) Dornoch: This is my dark horse pick of the race. This horse has had two awful appearances their last couple trips around the track. In April, they finished 4th in the Blue Grass Stakes. Then during the Kentucky Derby they got squeezed on the rail by the large field of horses and coasted their way to a middle of the pack finish several lengths off the pace. Aside from those two starts though, this horse has shown in the early stages of their career they could run with the favorites of this field. In their maiden race they finished 2nd to Seize the Gray and in their first graded stakes race they outlasted Sierra Leone by a nose. The difference in both of those races was they were ran on a slippery and muddy track respectfully. There is weather going through the Saratoga area this week, with high chances of rain and thunderstorms everyday, except for race day. With that in mind, poor track conditions could potentially increase this horses odds of being in contention down the stretch.
7.) Protective: The third Peter Pan Stakes runner in this field has three 3rd place finishes (one of which was a DQ and placed 4th), and one 2nd place finish in 4 starts. As previously noted I believe these newcomers are completely overmatched and will surcome to the favorites down the stretch.
8.) Honor Marie: During the Derby they had a terrible start and never truly recovered even though they did go from 20th to an 8th place finish in that race. A true closer that gets hurt by the shortened distance. If this went the regular Belmont distant of a mile and a half they may find themselves on the board. However, they will most likely wind up dead in the middle with a 5th place finish.
9.) Sierra Leone: Made a great comeback run in the Derby and chased down Mystic Dan down the stretch only to come up a nose short of victory. With a smaller field and less traffic to contend with in this trip they are an overwhelming favorite to dominate this race. However, with the shortened distance, expect another Kentucky Derby photo finish in this one too!
10.) Mindframe: Much like Tuscan Gold entering the Preakness. This is a lightly run horse with only two trips around the track. However, they have completely dominated their competition in those races and will be looking to make their presence known in their first graded stakes race this time around.
Picks for this race: Willing to share the wealth if they come in, but not responsible for your losses!
Winner: Mindframe
Place: Sierra Leone
Show: Dornoch
4th: Mystic Dan
5th: Sieze the Gray
6th: Honor Marie
7th: Antiquarian
8th: The Wine Steward
9th: Resilience
10th: Protective
Link to Past Performance Sheet:
https://production-picks-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2024/06/belmont-stakes-24.pdf
Preakness:
Preakness 149
The field is set to run the second leg of the lustrous Triple Crown chase at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore, MD. If you had read my Kentucky Derby predictions you would see that Mystik Dan was my sleeper selection in that race. He was able to hold off the hard charging dual of Forever Young, and derby favorite Sierra Leone in a photo finish. Mystik Dan…
Kentuck Derby:
Kentucky Derby Day!
Every year the Kentucky Derby stands alone in one of the most exciting sporting events on the yearly calendar. This day brings back memories from betting quarters with my grandpa Jurn while watching harness racing at the local fairgrounds. This eventually led to watching live racing at the now closed Swartz Creek track, just outside of Flint, MI.