Introduction to New Series: Predicting O/U for all 32 teams, Division by Division.
The Bissett Perspective: Introduces Props Guru Mike Goodwin. Snapshot of Early O/U Lines for NFC and AFC Conferences. Part 1 of 9.
🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈
Let’s be real—ever since the NFL Draft, content has been thin. We’re stuck in that weird purgatory where the season feels both way too far off and somehow right around the corner. That’s about to change. In our quest to keep things fresh and, hopefully, build a real “Bissett Perspective” community, I’ve teamed up with my good friend Mike Goodwin to help shake things up. If you’re new here, you should know two things about us: we’re both Michigan guys, and Mike has been mainlining the Honolulu Blue Kool-Aid since grade school—he’s survived every kind of Lions heartbreak you can name (yes, even the Joey Harrington years).
Between us, we’ve got more than forty years as fantasy football commissioners, and share a common interest in predicting props, parlays, and currently completing Best Ball drafts on both DraftKings and Underdog platforms.
For our first tag-team project, we’re taking on Vegas’s projected win totals for every NFL team heading into the 2025 season. Here’s how it’ll work: we each pick two teams per division, weigh the over/under, and give you our honest, no-fence-sitting takes. In a friendly competition, we will review our predictions at the end of the season and see who is the O/U champ!
Dive in, let us know where you think we’re off our rockers (or accidentally genius), and tell us what you want to see next. We’re pumped to kick this off—and if we cash a few tickets along the way, even better.
Some tools we will be using to make out projections are the Sharp Football Analytics strength of schedule chart, and the O/U lines from BetMGM, DraftKings, and Fanduel.
Sharp Football Analytics Strength of Schedule:
Here are some key takeaways from the chart:
The San Francisco 49ers are in a strong position this season: they get a healthy Christian McCaffrey and a freshly extended Brock Purdy, plus the league’s easiest strength of schedule. That’s the good news, especially after losing several veteran players in free agency. However, the bad is that they missed out on reuniting the Bosa brothers when Joey chose to sign with Buffalo instead.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Cleveland Browns and New York Giants—both of whom held top-three picks in this year’s draft—are facing especially tough schedules. They’re saddled with the 31st and 32nd-ranked strength of schedule, respectively, so it’s shaping up to be another rough ride for their fan bases this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have finished first in the NFC South four straight years, and look primed to be on their way to a 5th straight championship by having a top ten hardest schedule. The kicker: it’s the toughest slate in their division, with the Saints (3rd), Falcons (4th), and Panthers (7th) all drawing slightly easier schedules.
Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions are coming off the best season in franchise history and have the 30th-ranked strength of schedule—seemingly a tough break. However, their division rivals don’t fare much better: the Packers (23rd), Bears (26th), and Vikings (28th) all face similarly steep climbs.
Finally, the path back to the Super Bowl won’t be easy for either the Chiefs (27th) or the Eagles (29th). Both teams are staring down significantly tougher schedules this year, making repeat appearances anything but guaranteed.
Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the NFC:
Despite facing one of the toughest schedules among NFC teams, the Eagles are still favored by oddsmakers to lead the NFC East, with an over/under line set at 11.5 wins. The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers aren’t far behind; both are projected at 10.5 wins, giving them the edge in their respective divisions. In the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the highest projected win total at 9.5.
A few things stand out. Oddsmakers expect the 49ers to rebound from last year’s 6-11 finish, thanks to the return of their star running back and the league’s easiest schedule. On the flip side, the Vikings are projected to take the biggest step back—after a 14-win season, their over/under has dropped to just 8.5, matching the total set for both the Packers and Bears. With three teams at 8.5 wins, the NFC North looks like one of the most competitive divisions this year.
Meanwhile, even though the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers all have top-seven strength of schedule, oddsmakers are unimpressed with the NFC South as a whole: each of those teams is given O/U lines of 7.5 games or below. Even four-time repeated divisional champion Bucs are only at a 9.5-game O/U line.
Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the AFC:
The reigning MVP, Josh Allen, has the oddsmakers projecting the Bills to an over/under win total of 11.5—the largest gap between a division favorite and the next closest team in the entire conference. Still, the AFC East might be flying under the radar. The Dolphins get a healthy Tyreek Hill back, and both the Patriots and Jets are entering new eras, each bringing in familiar faces to lead their organizations.
Much like the Eagles in the NFC, oddsmakers aren’t concerned about the Chiefs’ tough strength of schedule; Kansas City is again projected to lead their division with an over/under of 11.5 wins. Meanwhile, in the AFC South, Vegas expects Houston to bounce back from a disappointing 2024 season and take the division crown. On the other end, the Tennessee Titans—despite adding Cameron Ward to stabilize their offense and complement an already strong defense—are projected to finish last in the division with an over/under of just 5.5 wins.
Make sure to check in as we release our predictions division by division throughout the upcoming weeks!
Release Schedule:
Part 1: Introduction 6/25
Part 2: NFC North: 6/27
Part 3: NFC West: 6/29
Part 4: NFC East: 7/1
Part 5: NFC South: 7/3
Part 6: AFC West: 7/5
Part 7: AFC East: 7/7
Part 8: AFC North: 7/9
Part 9: AFC South: 7/11
🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈🏈