NFC North: Early O/U Win Total Predictions
The Bissett Perspective: Goodwin and Bissett provide insights on the NFC North O/U betting lines. Part 2 of 9 in the series.
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The NFC North’s reputation as the black-and-blue division will be living up to its namesake this season. Green Bay looks to have the steadiest ship in the storm, rolling into the new year with the most holdover talent and stability. Meanwhile, Minnesota is fresh off a 14-3 campaign, but big changes are in the air: Sam Darnold has skipped town for Seattle, and rookie J.J. McCarthy now gets his shot under the so-called “Midas Touch” of Kevin O’Connell.
And then there’s the Lions-Bears rivalry, which just got a lot more interesting thanks to Ben Johnson. Detroit’s former offensive coordinator has traded his silver and blue for Chicago’s darker palette and orange trim, setting the stage not for a simple duel, but for a clash within the empire itself. Dan Campbell, now the reigning Caesar of the NFC North, has built Detroit into a powerhouse—his stamp of authority unmistakable throughout the division. But every empire breeds its rivals, and Johnson’s move to Chicago isn’t just a change of uniform—it’s an open bid for the throne. The division now waits to see if Johnson, once Campbell’s trusted lieutenant, will become the heir apparent or the usurper, testing the strength of Campbell’s rule and the boundaries of loyalty. Whether this becomes a tale of succession or betrayal is the drama that will define the season.
If that wasn’t enough, the entire NFC North faces a brutal gauntlet this year. According to Sharps Analytics, all four teams are projected to have one of the toughest slates in the league, with each squad posting a strength of schedule ranked 23rd or higher—Green Bay at 23, Chicago at 26, Minnesota 28th, and Detroit at 30.
As we begin breaking down over/under predictions tag-team style, Mike Goodwin takes on the storylines swirling around the Bears and Lions, while Jeremy Bissett handles the Vikings and Packers. Buckle up—this division promises plenty of drama, and maybe a few surprises, as we tally the win totals.
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Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the NFC North:
Team Schedules for NFC North:
*Scroll to the right to see the full schedule:
Chicago Bears:
2024 Record: 5-12
Vegas Line: 8.5
Sharp Analytics SOS rank: 26th
Home Games: MIN, DET, GB, DAL, NO, NYG, PIT, CLE
Away Games: MIN, DET, GB, LV, WSH, CIN, BAL, PHI, SF
Analysis:
The Chicago Bears went into the 2024 season as the clear champions of the offseason, boasting a strong free agent class and a rebuilt offense centered around first overall draft pick QB Caleb Williams and top-ten selection WR Rome Odunze. The Bears were a dark horse favorite for a deep playoff run. Vegas set their win line at 8.5 and had HC Matt Eberflus as the preseason favorite for Coach of the Year.
Then, of course, the actual games had to be played. Alas.
Here we are again: Chicago has cleaned house and is once more being praised for their offseason. Despite an underwhelming 5-12 record, Vegas has again set the win line at 8.5, and new head coach Ben Johnson is, you guessed it, the preseason favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year.
What could possibly go wrong?
Well, in my opinion, a lot of the same things. The big question for Chicago heading into 2025 is whether the offense—and specifically Caleb Williams—can take a real step forward. A big one. Chicago spent a good chunk of the offseason trying to upgrade their offensive line after Williams was sacked a league-leading 68 times, 16 more than second-place Stroud, by trading for linemen Jonah Jackson and Pro Bowler Joe Thuney.
The problem is, despite all the negative press, the offensive line wasn’t really that bad. Caleb had only the 15th highest pressure rate when not blitzed, but his 30.9% pressure-to-sack rate was third-worst in the league. He averaged 2.4 seconds of pocket time—the same as Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Jordan Love. According to Patton Analytics, Williams was responsible for the most QB-created sacks in the league. And it wasn’t close. The offensive line was poor to middling, sure, but you’d think Caleb had a contract incentive tied to sacks the way he never passed up an opportunity to take one.
But it gets worse. In a clean pocket, Caleb Williams’ catchable throw rate was just 75%, 33rd in the league, with 6.69 yards per attempt, ranking 31st. He also led the league in poor passes, with a whopping 116. Ouch. An improved O-line is never a bad thing, but it’s clearly not the root of this problem.
Someone needs to help Caleb evolve from the college QB who can will plays into existence by running around and being the best athlete on the field, into a quarterback who can read defenses and take what’s given. Is that coach on staff? Ben Johnson was a great play caller and designer in Detroit, but what kind of head coach he’ll be—and what he can do to develop a young QB—is very much to be determined. The same goes for first-time offensive coordinator Declaan Doyle.
Then there’s the run game, which was also a mess last year. Again, people blamed the O-line, but a closer look shows it’s not that simple. Lead back DeAndre Swift managed only 7 broken tackles all year. Out of 46 RBs with at least 100 carries, only five had less. It’s nice to have big holes, but your RB needs to do some work, too. And that’s with 253 carries—bump that up to 250 and the next lowest on the list is Aaron Jones with 11. (Derrick Henry had 43. I would not want to tackle Derrick Henry.) Backup Roschon Johnson, built more like a traditional between-the-tackles back, has only 136 carries for 502 yards over two years, including 55 for 150 (2.7 YPC) last year.
And despite everyone expecting Chicago to address the position in the deepest RB class in years—and bringing in four RBs for top-30 visits—they didn’t touch the spot until the 7th round, with Kyle Monangai. Reportedly, the “draft board didn’t fall their way.” Oops? Monangai is a bigger back with some tackle-breaking ability and acceptable speed for his size, so I’d expect him to get some play, but he’s not a game-changer. (Though I do like him as a late Best Ball pick.) Maybe they add someone before the season, but outside of a trade, options are slim.
Look, I know I’m being simplistic. There’s talent here. I watched a lot of Bears last year and what I saw was a broken, dysfunctional offense. The scheme was terrible. Caleb wasn’t getting the coaching he needed. Nobody was on the same page. It was just a miserable, undisciplined team on both sides of the ball.
But 9 wins? With first-year coaches installing new systems, a roster still in development, a brutal division, and a schedule that includes road games against the Eagles, Commanders, Ravens, Bengals, and 49ers (ouch), I see improvement coming, but not enough to break the .500 mark.
Goodwin Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions:
2024 Record: 15-2
Vegas Line: 10.5
Sharp Analytics SOS rank: 30th
Home Games: CHI, MIN, GB, CLE, TB, NYG, DAL, PIT
Away Games: CHI, MIN, GB, BAL, CIN, KC, WSH, PHI, LAR
Analysis:
As I’ve said before, I’m a Lions fan through and through, but I always try to keep my evaluations as objective as possible. That said, this is the easiest “over” in the league.
Hear me out.
Last year was wild—the first 15-win season in franchise history, the Lions snagging the top seed in the NFC (let’s not talk about the playoffs). Even as a lifelong optimist—despite nearly fifty years of heartbreak—I’m not expecting another 15-2 run. But that doesn’t mean 2024 was a fluke. Over their last 44 games, the Lions have posted a .800 win rate. Over a 17-game season, that’s about 13.6 wins. They’ve won 27 games over the past two regular seasons, and the roster is young and getting better.
So why is Vegas setting the line at a relatively modest 10.5?
The main reason is the sweeping coaching changes this offseason. If you follow the NFL, you know the Lions lost both OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn, replacing them with John Morton (poached from the Broncos) as OC and promoting tight ends coach Kelvin Sheppard to DC.
Let’s break down what that actually means.
On offense, John Morton isn’t new to Detroit’s system—he was on staff during the 2022 season. Dan Campbell even credited Morton last year as a key part of installing the current offense and helping Jared Goff get comfortable. This isn’t a guy coming in to reinvent the wheel—he helped build it. Recently, when asked about changes, Morton said, “I’m not changing much. I mean, why?” Any tweaks will be subtle, drawing from his past experiences around the league. And let’s not forget: this scheme and roster have always been Dan Campbell’s and GM Brad Holmes’ vision. Campbell called plays himself before Ben Johnson was promoted, and while Johnson was a great play-caller and drew up some fun trick plays, this was never just his show.
As far as personnel goes, the roster is probably the most consistent in the league from 2024 to 2025. The only notable departure is the surprising retirement of perennial Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow. That hurts, but the Lions hope second-round pick Tate Ratledge can help fill the void.
Now, the defense. Kelvin Sheppard joined as linebackers coach in 2021 (same year as Campbell), and both Campbell and Glenn identified him as a future coordinator early on, grooming him for this role. If the guys who brought in Glenn and Johnson have been developing Sheppard for four years and now trust him to run the defense, I don’t see much reason to expect a rocky transition.
Roster-wise, last year’s Lions defense was defined by injury. At one point, two dozen players were on IR. They led the league with 158 games lost to injury—these weren’t just depth guys, either. They lost most of their defensive line, including Aidan Hutchinson for 12 games, who was the clear Defensive Player of the Year favorite at the time. There was a stretch where four of their top five linebackers were out. Brad Holmes was literally signing guys off other teams’ practice squads on Tuesdays and starting them that week. I’ve never seen anything like it.
One reason for pessimism about 2025: the Lions’ schedule is currently ranked as the 30th hardest in the league. I don’t put much stock in that this early, but here’s a solid reason for optimism—the Lions have the most favorable rest day schedule in the NFL this season, with a +13 rest day advantage (rest days being the difference between your days off between games and your opponents’). For comparison, last year they were at -1. There’s also a proven correlation between positive rest days and fewer games lost to injury.
So, to sum up: here’s a 15-win team coming off some of the worst injury luck I’ve ever seen, returning nearly the entire offense, adding multiple Pro Bowl-caliber players on defense, and Vegas is setting the line at 10.5?
Yeah, I’m smashing that over.
Goodwin Prediction: OVER 10.5 wins
Minnesota Vikings:
2024 Record: 14-3
Vegas Line: 8.5
Sharp Analytics SOS rank: 28th
Home Games: ATL, CIN, PHI, BAL, CHI, WSH, DET, GB
Away Games: CHI, PIT (Dublin), CLE(London), LAC, DET, GB, SEA, DAL, NYG
Analysis:
Now that Mike has given his take on the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, it’s my turn to predict what’s in store for the other two teams in the division, starting with the Minnesota Vikings.
Right now, the Vikings find themselves in a situation eerily similar to last season, facing the fifth-toughest strength of schedule in the league, based on Vegas lines across all their opponents. This is exactly where Vegas slotted them last year, yet the Vikings still managed to win 14 games. How did that happen? Let me explain. The oddsmakers were wildly off on nearly all of the Vikings’ non-divisional opponents last year—most notably the 49ers, Jets, Jaguars, Titans, and Giants—all of whom finished 3.5 games below their projected win totals. Atlanta finished 1.5 games under expectations, and even divisional rival Chicago ended up 3.5 games shy of projections. So that 14-3 record was built on an 8-0 run against teams that simply weren’t as good as Vegas thought, and the Vikings made sure not to let any of them off the hook. (You know you read that in your best Denny Green voice—God rest his soul.)
Fast forward to this year, and it would require some truly dramatic events to see a repeat, given the caliber of teams on their schedule. Does anyone really believe the Bengals, Commanders, Chargers, and Packers will each win only six games this season? Or that the Eagles and Ravens will finish with just eight wins apiece? It’s safe to say the Vikings are facing a much steeper climb if they hope to replicate last year’s undefeated stretch against that slate of teams. The one scheduling favor: the games the Lions face on the road (Cincinnati, Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia), the Vikings get home field advantage—or do they?
The decibel levels those Skol chants reach will depend on whether or not J.J. McCarthy can shoulder the load as a first-time starter in the league. Kevin O’Connell deserves credit for being a quarterback whisperer, consistently getting the most out of his signal callers throughout his coaching career, both as a coordinator and now as a head coach. Still, this might be his toughest challenge yet. For McCarthy, though, adversity is nothing new. In high school, he didn’t attempt a single varsity pass as a freshman at Nazareth Academy. In College, he spent his first year at Michigan on the bench behind Cade McNamara. Now, he’s similarly started his NFL career, sidelined by injury and watching veteran journeyman Sam Darnold revive his career under O’Connell’s guidance.
At least McCarthy gets to throw to an elite receiver in another JJ, and he’ll benefit from the front office adding two linemen from the Colts—guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly. He also gets help in the backfield with Jordan Mason, signed as a second-round tendered restricted free agent from the 49ers.
Where the Vikings might find an edge against tough opponents is on defense, thanks to the job Brian Flores has done as defensive coordinator. They’ve added veteran depth up front, bringing in a pair of defensive tackles—Jonathan Allen (Commanders) and Javon Hargrave (49ers). These additions should help maintain their stellar run defense, which finished second in the league last year at 93.4 yards allowed per game. However, there isn’t much evidence to show they have done enough to fix last season’s 28th-ranked pass defense.
There’s still one more elephant in the room before I get to my prediction. The Vikings are set to become the international darlings of the NFL, playing the Steelers in Dublin, Ireland, in Week 4, then facing the Browns in London the very next week. This will be the second time they’ve played both teams outside the U.S. In 2013, they beat the Steelers 34-27 at Wembley Stadium; in 2017, they beat the Browns 33-16 at Twickenham.
With back-to-back weeks overseas, a much tougher slate of non-divisional opponents, and a redshirted JJ McCarthy under center, the math isn’t mathing very well for the Vikings to hit nine wins this season.
Bissett Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins
Green Bay Packers:
2024 Record: 11-6
Vegas Line: 9.5
Sharp Analytics SOS rank: 23rd
Home Games: DET, WAS, CIN, CAR, PHI, MIN, CHI, BAL
Away Games: CLE, DAL, ARI, PIT, NYG, DET, DEN, CHI, MIN
Analysis:
Not only do the Packers carry the “easiest” strength of schedule tag of all of the NFC North teams, they also saw the least change this offseason. They’re bringing back 84.5% of last season’s 11-6 roster and have even added a few more pieces to the championship puzzle they’re building. Notable veteran signings include wide receiver Mecole Hardman, guard Aaron Banks, and cornerback Nate Hobbs.
If anything did change, it was the front office’s long-standing philosophy about drafting a receiver in the first round—something they hadn’t done since 2002. In front of the home crowd, they selected Matthew Golden, the speedster from the University of Texas, with the 23rd pick.
So far, the outlook for improving on their 11-6 record is pretty favorable, and it looks even better when you dive into their schedule. Like the Vikings, the Packers get to host some of the top non-divisional opponents: Washington, Philadelphia, and Baltimore all have to come to Lambeau. They also benefit from a bye week before Who Dey Nation rolls in for a Week 6 matchup with Cincinnati. Another advantage? They get first crack at Detroit’s new offensive and defensive coordinators, opening the season at home against the Lions. On paper, it’s almost like fresh fruit hanging low on the vine.
But the season might shape up to be a tale of two halves.
Detroit, Washington, and Cincinnati are tough home games early on. On the road, they’ll have to face Cleveland, Dallas, and a Pittsburgh matchup that features a certain ghost from the past—Aaron Rodgers—under center. Then it’s Carolina at home. If the Packers can navigate that stretch and come out 4-4, they’ll be in good shape.
Then comes the second half of the season: Philly at home, a trip to MetLife to face the Giants, an away game at Detroit, and then four divisional matchups split between the Vikings and Bears. Mixed into that stretch is a tough road game in Denver in week 15. To reach 10 wins, they’ll need to go 6-3 in those final nine games.
All things considered, the oddsmakers seem pretty accurate in setting the line at 9.5 wins. This season is likely to hinge on a handful of coin-flip games. The one I’m circling on the calendar is Week 15 in Denver—the game that could either push the Packers to 10 wins or leave them just short.
Bissett Prediction: Truly a coin flip, but I’ll take the OVER 9.5
Recap:
Goodwin: Bears UNDER 8.5; Lions OVER 10.5
Bissett: Vikings UNDER 8.5; Packers OVER 9.5
Release Schedule:
Part 2: NFC North: 6/27
Part 3: NFC West: 6/29
Part 4: NFC East: 7/1
Part 5: NFC South: 7/3
Part 6: AFC West: 7/5
Part 7: AFC East: 7/7
Part 8: AFC North: 7/9
Part 9: AFC South: 7/11
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