NFC South: Early O/U Predictions
The Bissett Perspective: Insights on the NFC South O/U win totalsbetting lines. Part 5 of 9 in the series.
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Ready to wrap up your NFC Conference prep before we dive into the AFC? This article gives you a sharp look at the 2025 NFC South, blending betting angles with real team insight. Mike Goodwin breaks down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons, while Jeremy Bissett serves up analysis on the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints.
Inside, you’ll find why Tampa Bay is banking on continuity—returning nearly their entire roster and hoping Baker Mayfield can keep his MVP-caliber form for another run at the top. Atlanta, meanwhile, boasts a quarterback room worth $150 million after splurging on Kirk Cousins and using a top draft pick on Michael Penix Jr.—but does spending big at QB guarantee success?
Over in New Orleans, the Saints are starting fresh with new head coach Kellen Moore, who just led the Eagles to a Super Bowl win in the Big Easy. Moore’s first year as a head coach, though, will be anything but easy as he tries to reshape a roster with question marks at quarterback and elsewhere.
And then there are the Carolina Panthers, where the pressure is on: Can Bryce Young break through in his third year, and can Dave Canales keep his job in his second season at the helm—or will owner David Tepper’s coaching guillotine claim another victim?
From roster continuity to coaching shakeups, QB drama to owner impatience, you’ll get the storylines, the context, and the factors that could swing the division—all before placing your bets or setting your fantasy lineups. Let’s break down the NFC South.
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Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the NFC South:
Team Schedules for NFC East:
*Scroll to the right to see the full schedule:
Atlanta Falcons:

2024 Record: 8-9
Vegas Line: 7.5
Over – 140
Under +115
Home Games – TB, WSH, BUF, MIA, CAR, SEA, LAR, NO
Away Games – MIN, CAR, SF, NE, IND, NO, NYJ, TB, ARI
Analysis:
The 2024 offseason was a weird one for the Falcons, with them going all in at the QB position by throwing a $150 million contract at free agent QB Kirk Cousins and then, a short time later, once again going all in at the position by drafting Michael Penix with the 8th overall pick. Bit of a head scratcher.
But if it works, it works, and through the first half of the season it appeared to be working, with the Falcons riding high behind Cousins with a 6-3 record. Even “generational talent” Kyle Pitts was showing signs of life, culminating in 91 yards and 2 TDs in a Week 8 win over the Bucs. And then things went south. After four straight losses, followed by a 112-yard performance in a 15-9 win over the Raiders that should’ve resulted in a class action lawsuit being filed by everyone who paid to attend, Cousins was replaced by rookie Michael Penix to close out the last three games of a forgettable 8-9 season.
And what did we learn from the small sample we got of Penix last year? I’d say a pretty mixed bag, but a fun one to watch. The first thing that really pops was his accuracy – 58%. A little deeper look, though, turns up one reason for this – nobody had a higher big-time throw rate than he did at 9%. He was pretty good with those deep throws. On passes of 20+ yards downfield, he had the same completion rate as Jordan Love did last year at 36.8%. Still, you have to move the chains, my guy. Sinking it from half court makes for great TV, but you still want to take the layup when it’s there. Time will tell how that aspect of his game develops.
Something that has defined Penix’s approach to the position is a brutal injury history during his early college career. In order to try to stay on his feet, he changed his game and, despite his 40 time being in the 93rd percentile at the combine for his position, he does not run. As in, at all. As in, Jared Goff ran for more yards against Jacksonville in Week 11 last year (21) than Penix did in his last year of college and his first year of the NFL combined (20). He’s also exceptional at avoiding sacks and turnovers. He had three interceptions last year, but one Raheem Morris blamed on a busted route after the game, one was off Kyle Pitts’ hands, and one was basically completed to Ray-Ray McCloud at the goal line but he did some sort of chest pass directly to the defender. It was odd.
So, in summary, this is a guy that is going to get his production along the lines of pocket ponies like Tua, Stroud, and Stafford. And if that’s where the passing offense is going to come from, I don’t care how far he’s throwing it downfield, he’s definitely going to need a success rate that isn’t nearly 10% below league average to make it work.
As far as the recipient of those moonshots, the Falcons do have one huge fan of Penix’s QB style, and that’s 6’4”, 213-pound superstar in the making Drake London, who was a recipient of 39 targets during Penix’s three starts. Nobody else on the team had more than 12. Play favorites much? London wasn’t just good during Penix’s starts, he was 11th in the league in yards per route run and 5th in targets per route run during that stretch. Last year was London’s third in the league, and he did indeed take the traditional year-three wide receiver leap, crushing previous career highs with a 100-1271-9 stat line.
Lining up opposite him is perennially underrated Darnell Mooney, who, thrilled to be away from what passed for an aerial attack in Chicago, fell just 8 yards short of 1,000 after a shoulder injury kept him out of the Week 18 matchup. Also, there’s TE Kyle Pitts. Can you believe this guy is only 24? I feel like he’s been around for a decade at this point. We all know the story—generational prospect, elite athlete, 1,000-yard rookie season, and then…. If you’ve played fantasy, you have probably drafted him, been disappointed by him, and sworn him off forever, but he’s 24. The talent is there. Maybe this is the year? If so, it won’t be on my fantasy team.
But here’s someone I sure hope will be: RB Bijan Robinson. Last year Robinson turned a massive workload of 365 touches into 1,887 total yards and 15 TDs, which included 61 catches for 431 yards. I won’t go on about Robinson too much as I have carried on about the passing attack at length and we all know this guy is REAL GOOD, but I will offer up one thing. With over 500 career carries, he has never broken a run of over 40 yards. Last year alone in the NFL there were 28. Those huge runs are going to start happening for him, and when they do, if he is going to receive and can continue to hold up under a workload of this size, I have no idea what his ceiling could be for this season or beyond.
Defensively, the Falcons’ struggles have been consistent and ongoing, ranking among the very bottom of the league in most key categories. Last year they were in the bottom third of the league in virtually every passing category, 31st in third down defense with a brutal 45.3% conversion rate allowed, and over the past five years they’ve ranked dead last in the league in sacks, ranking 31st in 2024.
The Falcons are hoping for a big boost to the defensive line this year with the addition of first-round picks Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. The Falcons traded their 2025 2nd and 7th round picks along with their 2026 1st round pick to the Rams to move up and select Pearce (they also received the Rams’ 2026 3rd round pick), another pretty questionable move for the Falcons, given that teams in the midst of a rebuild usually are moving to acquire draft stock, not trade it away, but I will hold off final judgement until I see it play out on the field.
Additionally, the Falcons will be gaining the services of 2024 2nd round DT Ruke Orhorhoro, who missed most of his rookie season due to injury, and signed edge rusher Leonard Floyd to a one-year deal after an 8.5 sack season from the 49ers.
Is this going to be enough to get them towards the .500 mark in 2025? I have my doubts, and given the line so does Vegas. This defense has made some positive moves, but it is going to have to make a giant step forward just to reach the ranks of the mediocre. Penix is going to provide some moments, but this team is going to be in some shootouts and a pocket passer completing less than 60% of his throws traditionally struggles in that kind of game. Plus, this team is what we call in fantasy a “fragile build.” If a defense is able to take Bijan or London out of the game, or if, God forbid, one of them gets hurt for any extended period, unlike the aforementioned Buccaneers, I don’t see this team having the depth to provide serious offensive threats elsewhere or the talent to have someone step up and adequately replace the lost production.
Goodwin’s Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Vegas Line:
2024 Record: 10-7
Vegas Line: 9.5
Over – 105
Under -115
Home Games – NYJ, PHI, SF, NE, ARI, NO, ATL, CAR
Away Games – ATL, HOU, SEA, DET, NO, BUF, LAR, CAR, MIA
Analysis:
Last year marked the fourth consecutive NFC South Championship for the Buccaneers, riding high on the backs of QB Baker Mayfield and one of the most productive and efficient offenses in the league. While the defense was a middling 16th in scoring prevention at 22.6 PPG, an offense that averages 29.5 PPG is going to cover up a lot of sins.
Going into 2025, not much at all has changed for the Tampa Bay offense as they are somehow returning all 11 starters on offense. Baker Mayfield returns for his age 30 season, coming off easily his best season in the league, throwing up a gaudy 4500-41-16 line despite losing his starting two WRs for a combined 14 games, and tacked on a career-high 378 yards rushing. Before last year, Baker had never rushed for more than 165 yards or thrown more than 28 TDs in a season. Not bad for a guy who was written off as a first-round bust after bouncing between the Panthers and the Rams in 2022.
Although Baker’s ridiculous 7.2% TD rate is sure to regress to something closer to his 5.0% career rate, there’s little reason to think there isn’t another excellent season in store.
At WR, future HOFer Mike Evans returns in pursuit of an astounding 12th straight 1000-yard season, which would break Jerry Rice’s all-time NFL record. Chris Godwin is also returning, who, prior to a brutal Week 7 ankle dislocation, was on pace for a 1450-yard, 14 TD season. Although his rehab is ongoing, the fact that the Bucs brought him back with a lucrative contract this offseason seems to indicate they don’t have much worry that he won’t be a big contributor this coming season.
In addition, Tampa Bay spent the 19th overall draft pick on THE Ohio State’s all-time leader in receptions, WR Emeka Egbuka. Egbuka is a wildly talented receiver who can play both outside and in the slot, and who in the days leading up to the draft many had closely comped to now-teammate Chris Godwin. Along with returning 2nd-year receiver Jalen McMillan, who filled in admirably during Evans and Godwin’s missed time last season, this has to be the deepest WR room in the league.
In the backfield, 2nd-year RB Bucky Irving will be starting the year fully ensconced as the lead back, after a back-breaking fumble in Week 16 by starter Rashaad White finally convinced the team to fully hand over the reins to the rookie. Irving didn’t disappoint, posting 20 carries for 113 yards and 4 catches for 77 yards in a 48-14 romp over the Panthers the following week. Regardless of the reduced role, White will continue to contribute, with coach Todd Bowles recently praising his elite pass-catching skills and calling him “the best pass-blocking back we have.”
In addition to Rashaad White, the Buccaneers RB room also features Sean Tucker. While Tucker only had 59 touches in 2024, he made the most of them, with the highest percentage of carries to gains of 10+ yards in the entire NFL. Suck it, Saquon! Yards per carry is not always a great stat, but when it’s 6.2 it’s worth noting. He also was easily first in the league in yards per route run.
Of course, losing OC Liam Coen to the Jaguars isn’t ideal, but the internal promotion of Josh Grizzard from Pass Game Coordinator to fill the role should help maintain continuity. Also, it’s worth noting that the Pass Game Coordinator position was created specifically for Josh Grizzard in 2024, so his arrival and the elevation of the Tampa Bay passing attack is hard to write off as coincidental.
HC Todd Bowles has been in charge of this defense since 2019, and if there has been one thing that has been a constant, it’s that this has been a tough squad to run on. Since 2019, the Bucs defense has only been ranked lower than 7th in EPA per rush once (12th in 2022). In recent years, however, the pass defense has been the soft underbelly of the team, finishing 22nd in defensive pass EPA per drop back in 2023 and 19th last year.
While they opted to play to their strengths by selecting Egbuka in the 1st round of the draft this year, they did spend a 2nd-round pick on CB Benjamin Morrison, who, when healthy, was an exceptionally productive back at Notre Dame, and a 3rd-round pick on speedy CB Jacob Parrish out of Kansas State, who could end up starting the year for them at Nickel.
Looking at their prospects for 2025, the Bucs are projected to have the 10th easiest schedule in the league, and, while Bryce Young and Michael Penix gave their respective fans some reason for hope at the end of last year, are in what looks to be a very winnable NFC South. While 9.5 seems like a respectable line, it’s hard to deny that this team seems poised to keep rolling. Besides, Baker is just a fun story to root for.
Goodwin’s Prediction: OVER 9.5 Wins
Carolina Panthers:
2024 Record 5-12
Vegas Line 6.5
Over –120
Under +100
Home Games – CIN, LAC, DAL, NYG, KC, TB, NO, ATL
Away Games – DEN, WAS, CHI, LV, TB, NO, ATL, NYJ
Analysis:
This season feels like a crossroads for the Panthers—and no one knows that better than head coach Dave Canales and quarterback Bryce Young. The pressure cooker starts with owner David Tepper, who’s built a reputation as the NFL’s most impatient boss since buying the team in 2018. He’s cycled through seven head coaches (counting interims), rarely letting anyone get comfortable, and he doesn’t hesitate to make changes in the middle of a season. Just ask Ron Rivera, Matt Rhule, or Frank Reich, who all got pink slips before the year was even over. Since Tepper took over, Carolina has stumbled to a league-worst 36–80 record, and his itchy trigger finger means nobody gets much room for mistakes. That’s the reality facing Canales—known for his work with quarterbacks—heading into his second year, and it’s the same for Bryce Young, the 2023 first-round pick who flashed some promise but endured plenty of rookie bumps. For both coach and QB, 2025 feels like make-or-break territory. If they can’t get this thing turned around, history says Tepper won’t wait long to start over—again.
The start of 2024 was rough. Bryce Young got benched after just two games, as Carolina was outscored 73-13 by the Saints and Chargers. In that stretch, Young completed only 31 of 56 passes for 285 yards, and against the Chargers—despite being pressured on just 4 of 29 dropbacks—he managed only 84 passing yards. With the offense stuck in neutral, Dave Canales turned to Andy Dalton for some veteran calm. But Dalton’s run was cut short by a car accident, forcing Young back into the lineup sooner than expected.
Once Young returned in Week 8, the difference was almost night and day. He tossed at least one touchdown in each of his next seven games, steadily gaining confidence. Then, in Weeks 16 to 18, he hit another gear: seven passing touchdowns, three more on the ground. The season finale against Atlanta was his breakout—he went 25-for-34 for 251 yards, three scores, no sacks, and a 123.5 passer rating as the Panthers outlasted the Falcons 44-38. Over his final five starts, Young put up a 94.9 rating with 1,022 yards, nine touchdowns, and just three picks—a late-season surge every franchise wants to see from its young quarterback.
Entering the 2025 draft, the expectation was that the Carolina Panthers would use their No. 8 pick to find a difference-maker on defense. With one of the youngest groups of offensive skill players in the league, it seemed logical to balance things out by bolstering the other side of the ball. So it caught just about everyone off guard when Tetairoa McMillan’s name was called instead. The big, physical receiver from Arizona instantly adds another layer of youth to an already green offense, but he also brings the kind of outside threat and red zone presence Bryce Young simply hasn’t had since entering the league.
Hubbard looks to build off his 2025 breakout, anchoring the backfield after posting career numbers last season. If he runs into any setbacks, Dowdle offers a steady veteran presence who can step in and keep things moving. The real X-factor is Trevor Etienne. If he can follow in his brother’s footsteps and adapt quickly to the pro game, the Panthers could suddenly have a dynamic, unpredictable running back stable—one that gives defenses something else to think about.
With all this young talent, the flashes of promise from last year feel even more meaningful. McMillan is already pushing for a starting spot opposite Xavier Legette, giving Carolina a pair of young receivers who could grow with their quarterback. But for the offense—and Bryce Young in particular—to take the next step, it all comes down to how fast these young guys can make the leap from prospects to reliable playmakers. The team’s success hinges on these boys turning into men, sooner rather than later.
On defense, the days of Luke Kuechly and Julius Peppers are long gone. The Panthers struggled mightily against the run last year, giving up a league-worst 179.8 rushing yards per game. Injuries to Derrick Brown and Shaq Thompson only made things worse, and a pass rush that couldn’t get home put even more pressure on an inexperienced secondary. To try and fix things up front, Carolina added two promising young interior linemen—Bobby Brown III from the Rams and Tershawn Wharton from the Chiefs. After taking McMillan in the first round, they used Day 2 picks on Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton (No. 51) and Ole Miss’s Princely Umanmielen (No. 77) to inject some life into the pass rush. They also nabbed Ohio State safety Lathan Ransom (No. 122) and Florida defensive tackle Cam Jackson (No. 140) to round out the group. If these new faces live up to their college potential, this could finally be the foundation for a defensive turnaround that’s been a long time coming.
That brings us to the big question: Vegas has the Panthers’ win total set at 6.5 for 2025. Can they hit the over?
There’s a real case for optimism. If Young keeps progressing and Thielen returns healthy, the offense should have enough firepower. Hubbard’s breakout gives them a legitimate run game, and the receiver room suddenly looks a lot deeper. The wild card is the defense: if the new additions gel and they finally figure out how to slow down the run, this team could surprise some people.
Will they get to seven wins? Maybe. When the schedule dropped, I penciled in a split with Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and a sweep of New Orleans. There are some winnable road games early—Week 1 in Jacksonville, Week 2 in Arizona. If they can get off to a fast start, they might steal one or both. Week 6 brings Dallas to town—a tough matchup, but the Cowboys have been known to stumble on the road. Then it’s the Jets on the road in Week 7. If things break right, seven wins isn’t out of the question.
Bissett’s Projection: Over 6.5 Wins
New Orleans Saints:

2024 Record 5-12
Vegas Line 5.5
Over +125
Under –145
Home Games – ARI, SF, NYG, NE, NYJ, TB, ATL, CAR
Away Games – ATL, CAR, TB, BUF, MIA, LAR, SEA
*Note: The lines for the Saints have been moving significantly throughout the summer. Some Sports books like BetMGM have increased the line to 6.5 with a higher moneyline payout of +280 if the Saints get to 7 wins. Whereas Fanduel Sportsbooks, have done the opposite by dropping the line down 3.5 with a +230 moneyline for the under. The projections above are what the average line will most likely be at with an 0/U line of 5.5.
Analysis:
As the New Orleans Saints gear up for the 2025 NFL season, all eyes are on first-year head coach Kellen Moore and what he can bring to a team in transition. Known across the league as a creative offensive mind, Moore’s reputation for innovative play-calling, heavy use of pre-snap motion, and quarterback-friendly systems has fans intrigued about what he might do in New Orleans. But the real question is whether his offensive philosophy can unlock the full potential of a roster that, while talented in spots, still has plenty of question marks.
Moore’s offensive schemes have always thrived on unpredictability and adaptability. His playbooks in Dallas, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia featured extensive motion, multiple formations, and a willingness to tailor the attack to fit his personnel rather than force players into a rigid system. This approach helped quarterbacks like Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts flourish early in their careers, and Saints fans hope Moore can replicate that success. However, the talent Moore worked with in his previous stops was arguably more established. The Saints’ receiving corps, while promising, comes with its own challenges.
Chris Olave remains the clear top target, a dynamic playmaker with elite route-running ability and an uncanny knack for finding open space. Yet Olave’s injury history, particularly multiple concussions over the last few seasons, is a serious concern. Having suffered at least four confirmed concussions in three NFL seasons, his availability is never guaranteed, and the Saints will need to manage his health carefully. Alongside Olave, Rashid Shaheed offers speed and a vertical threat, stretching defenses and creating space underneath. Shaheed’s quickness and ability to turn short passes into big gains add a valuable dimension to the offense, though he too has faced injury issues that could limit his impact this season.
The third receiving option is where the depth chart gets interesting. Veteran Brandin Cooks, a known commodity with a track record of production, provides reliability and experience. However, the Saints also have second-year wideout Bub Means, who has flashed potential and could push for more snaps if he continues to develop. Balancing between relying on a seasoned vet like Cooks and giving a rising talent like Means more opportunities will be one of Moore’s offseason puzzles.
One undeniable positive for the Saints’ offense is the presence of Alvin Kamara, a veteran running back capable of bailing out a young quarterback both on the ground and as a receiver out of the backfield. Kamara’s versatility and proven playmaking ability give Moore a reliable safety valve and a way to keep defenses honest—especially important given the youth and inexperience at quarterback.
Offensive line play is another bright spot. The Saints have methodically rebuilt their offensive line through the draft, culminating in the 2025 selection of Kelvin Banks Jr., expected to slide into the critical left tackle position. Joining Banks are Trevor Penning at left guard, Erik McCoy at center, Cesar Ruiz at right guard, and Taliese Fuaga at right tackle. This group boasts solid grades—McCoy is considered one of the league’s top centers, and Fuaga ranks among the better tackles. This offensive line is poised to be one of the Saints’ strengths, providing good protection and run-blocking for Moore’s offense.
Moore’s offensive talent and innovative schemes could indeed maximize this group’s potential. But the bigger question looms: how will he handle the broader responsibilities that come with being a head coach? Leading the locker room, motivating veterans and young players alike, and managing the overall team culture require a different skill set than coordinating an offense. History shows mixed results for first-year head coaches jumping straight from coordinator roles, even those coming from Super Bowl-winning staffs. While legends like Don McCafferty and Red Miller made immediate impacts—winning a Super Bowl and leading a team to its first Super Bowl appearance respectively—the average first-year head coach posts just below a 45% winning percentage with only a 41.7% chance of making the playoffs. Those numbers highlight the steep learning curve Moore faces as he transitions from play-caller to the man in charge.
Adding to the challenge is the Saints’ 2025 schedule. Sharp Analytics ranks New Orleans’ strength of schedule as the third easiest in the league, offering some optimism. Yet wins will not come easy, especially with uncertainty at the quarterback position and a defense that struggled mightily against the run last season. To complicate matters, the Saints face a rest day disadvantage that will see them with a net deficit of 14 rest days compared to their opponents throughout the season. Meaning they will collectively have 14 fewer rest days to recover and prepare. This is a tough hurdle for a team with aging stars on both sides of the ball and a young quarterback room. Managing player health and preparation week in and week out will be a critical detail that a young head coach like Moore must stay mindful of.
The Saints’ quarterback room is a big question mark heading into this season, and how things play out could end up shaping who they target if they land the No. 1 overall pick in 2026. Spencer Rattler, now in his second year, had a rough go last season—he was stuck behind a patchwork offensive line and a roster that looked more like a UFL squad than an NFL contender. Whether he can take a real step forward is still up in the air. Then there’s Tyler Shough, the rookie second-rounder who seems to have played college ball forever. He brings experience and a lively arm after a strong 2024 at Louisville—just under 3,200 yards, 23 touchdowns, and only six picks. Moore’s offense might be a good fit for Shough, but college success doesn’t always carry over to Sundays. So the Saints have two big questions: can either of these guys actually be the answer at quarterback, and if not, which QB do they go after if they land the first pick next spring? Will it be Archie Manning, following his grandfather’s legacy, or do they stay local and grab LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier?
Defensively, the Saints made minimal offseason moves to address glaring run defense issues. Last year, they ranked in the bottom three, surrendering an average of 141.4 rushing yards per game. Veteran defensive end Cameron Jordan and safety Tyrann Mathieu were re-signed to provide leadership and stability, but the front seven still looks thin. The team’s best hope to improve lies in recent draft picks like Vernon Broughton, a third-round defensive tackle from Texas, and Jonas Sanker, a secondary addition in the second third-round. Another notable selection is linebacker Danny Stutsman, an early Day 3 steal who brings youth and a strong tackling pedigree to a position where longtime leader Demario Davis is aging at 36. Stutsman started 37 games at Oklahoma, racking up 376 career tackles, and is seen as a key piece in the Saints’ effort to shore up their run defense.
Ultimately, Kellen Moore’s arrival brings hope and a fresh offensive philosophy that could energize the Saints. His track record as a coordinator suggests he has the tools to get the most out of this offense, especially with a strong supporting cast on the offensive line and a versatile back like Kamara. But the transition to head coach is never easy, and the Saints must navigate quarterback uncertainty, defensive weaknesses, and the pressures of a demanding fanbase.
The 2025 season will be a defining test for Moore. Can he adapt to the many hats a head coach must wear? Will he find the right quarterback to lead his offense? And can he inspire a team that has struggled to find its footing in recent years? Only time will tell. Saints fans, as always, are ready to find out.
Bissett’s Prediction: UNDER 5.5 Wins
The Fanduel under 3.5 wins for a +230 payout may be the way to go for a larger payout.
Release Schedule:
Release Schedule:
Part 5: NFC South: 7/9
Part 6: AFC East: Coming Soon
Part 7: AFC West: Coming Soon
Part 8: AFC North: Coming Soon
Part 9: AFC South: Coming Soon
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