NFC West Conference: Early O/U Win Total Predictions!
The Bissett Perspective: Mike Goodwin and Jeremy Bissett give their insights on the NFC West Conference. Part 3 of 9.
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The NFC West steps into the 2025 NFL season perched on a knife’s edge—a division where bold gambles, quiet bets, and everything in between could scramble the pecking order. Las Vegas oddsmakers have already drawn their lines: the Rams (9.5 wins) and 49ers (10.5) are the class of the group on paper, while the Seahawks and Cardinals are met with skepticism. But numbers only tell part of the story. After a year of letdowns and near-misses, the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers have all hit the reset button—shuffling rosters, tweaking coaching staffs, and betting that change can spark a turnaround or extend a window. Arizona, on the other hand, barely touched the controls after another forgettable season, making only minor tweaks to a roster still searching for an identity.
Sharp Analytics’ strength of schedule (SOS) rankings add another wrinkle: The 49ers, surprisingly, have the easiest path in the division, holding the overall easiest SOS, while the Cardinals and Seahawks face mid-tier challenges at 11 and 13 respectively. The Rams, meanwhile, draw the short straw with the 23rd-toughest slate. But once you dive into each team’s offseason moves and depth charts, those schedule numbers start to feel almost irrelevant.
Mike Goodwin will break down the Seattle Seahawks and St. Louis Rams (still can’t pry him away from his love affair with Stafford), while Jeremy Bissett weighs in on the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals. The division’s revolving door has already spun—Davante Adams lands in L.A., Sam Darnold in Seattle, and the 49ers lose cornerstone veterans. Yet despite all this turnover and the wide range in schedule difficulty, our analysts see only one team with a clear path to beating Vegas: the Rams. In a division where almost nothing feels certain, that’s as close as you’ll get to a safe bet in this division.
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Snapshot of the O/U Lines for the NFC West:
Team Schedules for NFC WEST:
*Scroll to the right to see the full schedule:
Seattle Seahawks:
2024 Record: 6-11
Vegas Line: 7.5
Home Games: SF, NO, TB, HOU, ARI, MIN, IND, LAR
Away Games: PIT, ARI, JAX, WSH, LAR, TEN, ATL, CAR, SF
Analysis:
Under first-year head coach and former Ravens defensive guru Mike Macdonald, the Seattle defense jumped from 25th to 11th in points allowed in 2024—a pretty solid improvement. On the other hand, the offense, which peaked in 2022 during Geno Smith’s “breakout” year (can a QB have a breakout in his ninth season?), has regressed to the middle of the NFL pack, showing few signs of leveling up in its current form.
As a result, this offseason Seattle made moves to overhaul their offensive identity in a way you rarely see from competitive teams. They traded longtime star WR DK Metcalf and QB Geno Smith, signed top free agent QB Sam Darnold, and brought in WRs Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to line up with second-year breakout Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Additionally, they drafted OT Grey Zabel in the first round to shore up a leaky offensive line, along with TE Elijah Arroyo in the third—a player who scouts as a capable blocker and receiver. Arroyo’s impact in 2025 may depend on whether the team decides to keep Noah Fant and his $13.5 million cap hit.
So where does that leave them? I admire the bold moves. It’s frustrating watching teams muddle along year after year, convincing themselves they’re one move away while plugging roster holes for a #6 playoff seed ceiling (looking at you, Pittsburgh). Better to take a shot on Darnold than run it back with Geno for a fourth time, no matter how fun his story was. And rebuilding the WR room around JSN instead of locking Metcalf into a long-term, top-of-the-market deal makes sense.
Still, I have concerns for 2025.
I love the story of former #3 overall pick Sam Darnold going from bust to garnering MVP buzz last year, but I’m not ready to buy into him as a finished product after just one season under QB guru Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota. If you look at O’Connell’s history, you’ll find a better-than-expected record with some less-than-stellar starting QBs. If history is any lesson, Darnold’s 2024 might reflect O’Connell’s coaching more than Darnold’s own ability.
Don’t get me wrong—Darnold can be a starting QB in this league, but I doubt much of that career-high 102.5 QBR will carry over to Seattle.
I’m also not convinced Seattle has done nearly enough to improve an offensive line that PFF graded 30th out of 32 last year. Geno Smith was excellent under pressure, but if there’s one thing Darnold has struggled with throughout his career, it’s performing when the pocket breaks down. If you don’t believe me, check the last two games of his 2024 season: the offense managed just 18 points across two games while he faced heavy pressure from the Lions and Rams. Or Google the infamous mic’d-up moment when Darnold admitted to “seeing ghosts” while down 24-0 to the Patriots on Monday Night Football in 2019. His line that night: 11-32, 86 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs. Tough look, my guy.
And while JSN seems to be a star in the making, 32-year-old Cooper Kupp lining up opposite him doesn’t inspire confidence. Kupp hasn’t played more than 12 games or topped 750 yards since 2022, showing every sign of being on the wrong side of the age curve. If he misses time—which seems likely—I’m not sure Marques Valdes-Scantling, Jake Bobo, or fifth-round pick Tory Horton can fill the gap.
Add in a division featuring a San Francisco team coming off a down year, an improved Arizona squad, and the always-tough Rams, and I have a hard time seeing Seattle doing better than a repeat of last season’s record.
Goodwin’s Prediction: UNDER 7.5 wins
Los Angeles Rams:
2024 Record: 10-7
Vegas Line: 9.5
Home Games: HOU, IND, SF, NO, SEA, TB, DET, ARI
Away Games: TEN, PHI, BAL, JAX, SF, CAR, ARI, SEA, ATL
Analysis:
2024 was a tough year offensively for the Rams as they dealt with injuries to top targets Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, and Tyler Higbee—all of whom missed significant time. At times, all three were out simultaneously, leading to games like the Week 3 loss against the Bears, where Matthew Stafford was forced to lean on the pass-catching trio of Jordan Whittingham, Tutu Atwell, and Demarcus Robinson. Fortunately, they managed to overcome these injuries in time for a strong finish, closing the regular season at 10-7 and ending the year just a few plays short of taking out the Eagles in the second round of the playoffs and earning a trip to the NFC Championship Game.
This offseason, the team finally moved on from Cooper Kupp, who has never come close to repeating his legendary 2021 season. Instead, they brought in Davante Adams, who, despite being of similar age to Kupp, has shown little sign of slowing down. They’ll also have the full services of Stafford favorite TE Tyler Higbee, who missed the first 14 games of 2024 recovering from a knee injury suffered during the 2023 playoffs, and have added highly regarded second-round draft pick TE Terrance Ferguson. Alongside star Puka Nacua and field-stretcher Tutu Atwell, there’s an argument this could be the best group of pass-catchers Stafford has had since joining the Rams.
No one’s going to argue—the offense should be able to run with anyone in the league. But the defense…not so much. Last year, this squad ranked 26th in yards per game and 20th in passing yards per game. This offseason, they added Poona Ford—an upgrade to a solid young group—and drafted a few pieces at DE and LB. But they failed to do much for a secondary that struggled all last year, which is a bit of a head-scratcher.
From a roster-building standpoint, though, this isn’t uncharted territory. We know what to expect from the Rams: superb coaching and an elite offense that can more than make up for shortcomings elsewhere.
The one valid concern, as noted, is the same one that nearly derailed them last year: injuries. While injuries are a fact of life in the NFL, they loom larger for this team than most. They have a 37-year-old QB who’s taken plenty of hits, a #1 WR in Puka Nacua who has dealt with a disproportionate amount of soft tissue injuries dating back to college, and Adams, who, while not injury-prone, is heading into his age-33 season.
One stat that could help ease those fears: last year, the Rams had a net-zero rest days on their schedule (rest days being the difference between days off for the Rams and their opponents between games). This year, they have a +11 rest day stat, tied for second in the NFL. There’s a strong correlation between positive rest days and fewer man-games lost to injury.
That’s not a guarantee of injury luck, of course, but given how the team managed last year’s brutal run of injuries, as long as Stafford stays healthy, I don’t see how they don’t safely reach their now-annual benchmark of 10 wins.
Goodwin’s Prediction: OVER 9.5 wins
San Francisco 49ers:
2024 Record: 6-11
Vegas Line: 10.5
Home Games: ARI, JAX, ATL, LAR, CAR, TEN, CHI, SEA
Away Games: SEA, NO, LAR, TB, HOU, NYG, ARI, CLE, IND
Let’s not sugarcoat it: 2024 was a disaster for the 49ers. After being penciled in as a Super Bowl contender, they limped to a 6-11 finish, tanking far below expectations. Now, Vegas is setting the line at 10.5 wins—banking on a bounce-back year and the return of some familiar faces. I get the optimism. But I’m not buying it.
First, the good news. The 49ers locked up their core on offense. Brock Purdy signed a five-year, $265 million extension with $182.55 million guaranteed—$100 million of that fully guaranteed at signing. George Kittle became the highest-paid tight end in NFL history with a four-year $76.4 million extension, $35 million guaranteed, keeping him in San Francisco through 2029. Christian McCaffrey is reportedly healthy and back to full-go at offseason workouts after an Achilles and knee nightmare in 2024. If you believe the hype, the Niners’ star trio is set to roll.
But let’s talk about CMC for a second. He turns 29 this season and, since 2020, has missed 38 games due to injury. His all-time ranks? Just 95th in total scrimmage yards, 87th in rushing yards, and 102nd in receiving yards. That’s not what you want from the centerpiece of your offense—or the highest-paid player at his position. I’m not ready to call him one of the most overrated players ever, but those numbers are hard to overlook. Maybe he’s finally healthy, maybe not. If I’m a Niners fan, I’m feeling nervous.
The receiving corps also carries plenty of questions heading into the season. The biggest is whether Brandon Aiyuk can make a real impact returning from the ACL and MCL injury he suffered in Week 7 last year. 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall took a bullet to the chest before the season, but he finished strong: 31 catches for 400 yards and 3 touchdowns, despite missing six games. Coaches love his resilience and work ethic, but he’s still unproven over a full campaign. Then there’s Jauan Jennings, arguably one of the most underrated players in the league and someone the 49ers will be leaning on early—if he can stay on the field. Jennings has missed his share of time with injuries, and there are already concerns about a calf strain. That’s worth watching, especially considering how CMC’s 2024 season unraveled after a similar issue. For all the talent in this group, there’s just as much uncertainty about who will be available—and effective—week to week.
Their losses this offseason weren’t limited to just the injury report. On offense, Deebo Samuel is gone, as are RB Jordan Mason and LG Aaron Banks. The defense took a bigger hit: Leonard Floyd, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and Charvarius Ward have all moved on. They also missed out on the Bosa brothers reunion when Joey jaded the team to sign with the Bills instead. That’s a lot of experience and leadership out the door.
To their credit, the front office tried to patch the holes. They addressed immediate needs in the draft: taking RB Jordan James and WR Jordan Watkins to fill offensive gaps, then spending six straight picks on defense to rebuild what’s been lost. First-rounder Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia) headlines the group, with Alfred Collins (DT, Texas), Nick Martin (LB, Oklahoma State), Upton Stout (CB, Western Kentucky), and CJ West (DT, Indiana) joining the cause.
But here’s the thing: you can’t swap out half a defense and expect to pick up right where you left off, especially when you’re losing veterans who set the tone in the locker room. Even with Robert Saleh returning as defensive coordinator, it’s a tall order to expect instant chemistry and leadership from a bunch of rookies and newcomers.
There’s a weird pattern with Kyle Shanahan, too. He’s led the 49ers to the NFC Championship twice during his tenure. Both times, the following season, the team cratered to just 6 wins. The last time this happened, they bounced back to 10 wins before stringing together two more double-digit win seasons. So, maybe there’s some precedent for a rebound here. But I’m not convinced.
Even with what’s supposedly the easiest strength of schedule in the league (shoutout to Sharp Analytics), I can’t get past the red flags. CMC’s health is a mystery. Purdy and Kittle are locked up, but Purdy hasn’t necessarily avoided the injury bug to start his career, and Kittle is 32 years old. The defense is unrecognizable compared to the unit that powered playoff runs. And this year, there’s just not enough reliable veteran presence to expect a seamless transition.
Look, I get the optimism. But sometimes you have to call it for what it is. I’m leaning under. Give me the 49ers at 10 wins or less.
Bissett’s Prediction: UNDER 10.5 wins
Arizona Cardinals:
2024 Record: 6-11
Vegas Line: 8.5
Home Games: ARI, JAX, ATL, LAR, CAR, TEN, CHI, SEA
Away Games: SEA, NO, LAR, TB, HOU, NYG, ARI, CLE, IND
Arizona’s offseason felt more like a snooze button than a reset: mostly the same faces, with a couple of familiar veterans sprinkled in. Their biggest splash was luring Josh Sweat away from Philly to reunite with Jonathan Gannon in the desert. They also brought in Calais Campbell, who’s still going strong at 39 but is closer to the end than the beginning. On offense, the only notable move was signing Jacoby Brissette to hold a clipboard behind Kyler Murray.
Not much has changed for the Cardinals’ offense since they drafted Murray in 2019. After years of nagging injuries, Murray finally played a full 17-game season—finishing with a 68% completion rate, 3,851 passing yards, and 21 touchdowns. He added 572 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Those numbers aren’t bad, but for a quarterback eating up more than $40 million in cap space, the expectations are a lot higher. Just for comparison: rookie Bo Nix threw for almost as many yards (76 less), but managed 29 touchdowns, plus another 430 yards and 4 TDs on the ground. If Murray doesn’t level up soon, don’t be shocked if his name starts popping up in trade rumors—especially since his dead cap hit starts to drop considerably after the next couple of seasons, and the Cardinals might be tempted by the deep 2026 QB draft class.
The front office didn’t seem in any rush to shake up the roster. Maybe that’s because the offense managed to sneak into the top 12 for both total yards and points last season, and their ground game ranked seventh. Still, they didn’t add any significant pieces to the receiving corps or the offensive line, and didn’t bother finding a backup for an aging James Conner, leaving that job to last year’s third-rounder Trey Benson. Marvin Harrison Jr. was a great get at #4 overall last year, but once defenses key in on him, Kyler’s other options—Greg Dortch, Zay Jones, Simi Fehoko, and Michael Wilson—aren’t exactly keeping defensive coordinators up at night. Trey McBride is a stud at tight end, but let’s be honest: on paper, this offense isn’t exactly terrifying. And the offensive line? It might as well be made of papier-mâché.
The defense doesn’t inspire much confidence, either. Pairing this year’s No. 16 pick Walter Nolan with last year’s first-rounder Darius Robinson could turn into something special down the line, but both guys are going to take their lumps as they adjust to the NFL. Sweat and Campbell will try to show them the ropes, but that’s about as much optimism as you can muster—this unit just isn’t ready to scare anyone.
By the numbers, it’s bleak: the Cardinals haven’t hit double-digit wins since 2021, and before that, you have to go back to 2015. Other than that 11-win year, they’ve only reached 8 wins three times in the past nine seasons. For a team that finished 8-9 and stood still while the rest of the division reloaded, it’s hard to see how they’ll make any real progress. Feels like they’re just running it back and hoping for the best. They rank 11th on the strength of schedule chart, but I do not see that as a significant factor to base the other weighted factors on.
Bissett’s Prediction: UNDER 8.5 wins
Recap:
*Moneylines per BetMGM
Goodwin: Seahawks UNDER 7.5 (+120); Rams OVER 9.5 (-150)
Bissett: 49ers UNDER 10.5 (-130); Cardinals UNDER 8.5 (-120)
Release Schedule:
Part 3: NFC West: 6/29
Part 4: NFC East: 7/1
Part 5: NFC South: 7/3
Part 6: AFC West: 7/5
Part 7: AFC East: 7/7
Part 8: AFC North: 7/9
Part 9: AFC South: 7/11
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