Playing the Futures Market in Best Ball Drafts
Mike Goodwin looks at three players you need to be investing in, based on their current Average Draft Position.
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Our Mike Goodwin digs deep into three players flying under the radar in the later rounds of Best Ball drafts, based on their current ADP. If you’re looking for overlooked value and a chance to gain an edge before the market catches up, these are names you’ll want to know heading into the thick of draft season.
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Goodwins Take:
When it’s barely July and I tell my friends I already have roughly 100 Best Ball drafts under my belt, even the ones who enjoy fantasy football tend to look at me as a deviant who is forced to depend on vitamin D supplements since it’s rare that sunlight ever touches my skin.
Right on both counts.
But they’re missing the opportunity that playing Best Ball this time of year provides, as there is no better time to capitalize on market blind spots and gain massive draft equity.
Last year at this time, I was stockpiling Rashee Rice in the 7th and 8th rounds in every draft I was in. By the time August rolled around, he was being drafted in the 3rd round, and for four glorious weeks, I looked like a genius, soon to be rolling in cash. Unfortunately, there are no advanced metrics to account for Patrick Mahomes’ big dumb head. Nevertheless, we trust the process and soldier on.
Numerous studies have demonstrated a strong correlation between securing positive draft capital through your selections versus Average Draft Position (ADP) and success in Best Ball regular seasons. Essentially, the more frequently you acquire players who fall below their ADP, as opposed to reaching for players above their ADP, the greater your likelihood of advancing to the playoffs. While a positive correlation exists with playoff victories as well, it's not as pronounced as with regular-season advancement rates. Engaging in Best Ball drafts now provides the chance to accumulate ADP value based not only on current ADPs but also on closing ADPs, reflecting where players will be drafted as the season and our contests commence.
So, to be clear, this isn’t just a “sleeper” article. Think of it more as an investment guide. If we list someone going in the 19th or 20th round here and you think, “But I like to grab Elic Ayomanor or Theo Johnson there,” hey, we like those guys too. But those guys will likely still be going in that range in August. In the meantime, take a look at our recommendations, and if you think there’s something to them, stock up on our guys now so that in August, when your competition is spending their mid-teen picks on the guys you were piling up 40 picks later, that’s when you can take those Theo Johnson shares.
For my first entry in this series, I’ll be looking at three guys going at the very end of drafts who I think the market is sleeping on. Let us know what you think, and if there are any other viable candidates you could see shooting up in ADP over the next few weeks.
Tahj Brooks, Cincinnati RB
Chase Brown was one of the true breakouts in 2024 for the Bengals, showing abilities as an elite receiver and fantastic ability in space. However, he was never able to elevate as a between-the-tackles runner, and the Bengals struggled in short yardage as a result, ranking 16th in the league in converting from 3rd and 1.
Indeed, Brown’s low yards after contact number of 1.7 really stands out. Among the 24 runners with 200 or more carries, only Kareem Hunt had a lower YAC, and DeAndre Swift was the only other RB to come in at 1.7. Of the 24 qualified runners, Chase came in a solid half yard short of middle of the pack in the statistic. For all his gifts, this isn’t what you’re looking for in a guy to hand it to in those short yardage situations.
Enter Tahj Brooks, 6th-round draft pick of the Bengals. Brooks is a five-year back out of Texas Tech, where he was featured as a focal point of the offense during his final two seasons, receiving 200 carries each year. He was top 10 in total yards per team play at 1.99 in this year’s draft class, and at 5’9” and 214 lbs., was top three in body mass index—clearly built to get the tough yards.
Brooks is unlikely to break the long run, although his 4.52 40 is better than average for his size, and while he wasn’t featured as a receiving back in college, he’s shown ability with his hands when called upon. But he certainly knows how to use his blocking. If you watch his tape, he’s the kind of back that gets every yard the O-line gives him, plus a little more. Exactly what the Bengals need.
Zack Moss is currently listed as second on the depth chart right now, but even before the injury that ended his season against the Raiders on November 3, he wasn’t showing much to be excited about, and the Bengals were seeing it. Through the first four games, he got 48 carries; his next four games, only 24, clearly being phased out of the offense in favor of the much more dynamic Brown.
This year, the Bengals are going to need someone to not only get those tough yards for them, but to mitigate some of the workload from standout Chase Brown for what they hope to be a deep playoff run, and I believe Tahj Brooks will get the opportunity to step into that role.
As I said in my introduction, at this point of the year, we’re looking to identify guys who are being slept on so we can grab them at a discount before the general public notices the value and starts pushing the value up.
Let’s check out a few other RB ADPs in comparable situations to see what kind of potential value we may be looking at:
Roschon Johnson CHI 163.7
Rico Dowdle CAR 173.4
Jarquez Hunter LAR 197.1
Tahj Brooks CIN 213.2
Roschon Johnson is on the same team with the same depth chart he was in last year, and he posted 55 carries for 150 yards, and he is going 49.5 spots ahead of Brooks. In Carolina, even if Chuba were to go down, Dowdle would likely be sharing the backfield with rookie Trevor Etienne, and he’s going 40 picks ahead of Brooks. Hunter is another rookie and is currently listed as the #3 back behind second-year Blake Corum, and he’s going 16 picks ahead of Brooks.
You see why I think there’s some real value here?
I pulled these examples because these are players that I think have the contingency value of stepping into a major role in case of injury to the lead back, but unlike some handcuff situations, I also believe they will be getting touches throughout the season. Like I said, this is a role the Bengals desperately need filled, and the only other right-now option is Moss, and as we saw, the Bengals moved away from him last season before drafting Brooks.
And here’s the thing: if you don’t believe in Brooks, then grab Zack Moss. Right now, his ADP is 215.6, and one or both of these guys is going to be a steal at where they’re going. The CIN offense right now has two WRs going as top 13 picks at their position, Joe Burrow is QB5, Chase Brown is RB11, and yet somehow both handcuffs are being completely ignored. I believe these are the cheapest RB handcuffs in the entire NFL right now, and they’re on one of the best offenses.
This is just free draft capital.
DJ Giddens, Indianapolis Colts RB
The backbone of any hero or zero RB build are the backup RBs, especially in run-heavy offenses that tend to lean on one guy. Which is why I have no idea why DJ Giddens is currently going at the end of drafts.
Right now in Indianapolis, the depth chart is Jonathan Taylor, Khalil Herbert, and DJ Giddens. So technically, as of this writing, DJ Giddens isn’t the #2 RB. But does anyone think that the Colts had any intention of journeyman Khalil Herbert being their backup when they signed him to a very cheap one-year, $1.34 million contract ($482,000 guaranteed) and then went out and immediately drafted DJ Giddens in this year’s draft?
Well, as of right now, many people do, and before they wise up, we have a window to profit.
First, a little about the two backs to make clear why I don’t think this is much of a competition. 2025 will be Herbert’s fifth in the league. His best year was 2022 with the Bears, where he had 129 carries for 731 yards and 4 TDs and 9 catches for 57 yards. Last year, he was traded halfway through the year to the Bengals after Zach Moss’s season-ending injury, and despite having no competition, barely made an appearance. His total rushing line for the season between both teams was 14 carries for 36 yards.
His draft profile was NFL roster depth, and that’s what he’s shown himself to be.
Rookie DJ Giddens is a big back at 6’0” and 212 lbs. and was one of the most productive backs in Big 12 history, finishing with 6.55 YPC, forcing the seventh most missed tackles among all Power 5 backs in the nation his final year. He was a solid receiver in college and, very importantly for a rookie, did not turn the ball over—one fumble in his final 428 carries.
He’s a rookie, so there will always be questions of pass blocking and picking up the playbook, but the skillset looks to be there to fall into a three-down, workhorse role if the need arises.
So, as we did with Tahj, let’s take a look at a couple other backs in similar situations and see where we might expect him to go:
Trey Benson ARI 139.7
Will Shipley PHI 169.7
Braelon Allen NYJ 176.5
DJ Giddens IND 207.4
I didn’t cherry-pick these—these are three other RBs, none of whom have seen the field much, if at all, all backing up workhorse RBs. And right now, the cheapest of them is going close to three full rounds in front of Giddens.
And let me share one more thing as to why I’m prioritizing Giddens.
2024 - 3
2023 - 7
2022 – 6
Those are the number of games Jonathan Taylor has missed in the last three years. In fact, last year before the season, I read an article from a surgeon speculating that JT has a chronic ankle issue dating back to two ankle injuries he suffered requiring surgery in 2022. And then last year, once again, a high ankle sprain to that same ankle. Now, I can’t say whether that means he does indeed have chronic ankle issues, but I can say he has a lot of injuries with that ankle that have caused him to miss a lot of games.
And I can also say he has a worse record of staying on the field than any RB currently being drafted in the top 20 not named Christian McCaffrey.
Sounds like my perfect backup—likely to see the field and available for nothing.
Amari Cooper, Free Agent WR
Well, they can’t all be exciting, fresh-faced rookie RBs.
Amari Cooper is currently going at pick 224.7, and there is one reason and only one reason for that: he hasn’t signed with a team yet. Unless you think he is going to retire, understand that the moment he signs with a team, that ADP is going to shoot up.
But he’s old! His ceiling fails to thrill me! I wildly overpaid last year in a trade when he went to Buffalo and I was disappointed!
Well, that last one is a bit on you, but the rest of it doesn’t matter. Still a steal. Don’t believe me?
Check out the current ADPs of these WRs:
Adam Thielen CAR 143.8
Alec Pierce IND 174.8
DeAndre Hopkins BAL 176.9
Josh Palmer BUF 177.9
Michael Wilson ARI 189.4
Calvin Austin PIT 193.2
Guys, Alec Pierce is currently, I’d guess, the #5 target on one of the worst offenses in the league, and his QB will either be Jones, who had the worst air yards per pass attempt in the league by far last year, or Anthony Richardson, who had one of the worst completion percentages in NFL history last year. Fifty picks ahead of Cooper.
Adam Thielen will be 35 this year. DeAndre Hopkins will be 33, did nothing last year, and is the #3 WR on an offense where the #1 WR finished #24 in scoring in the league during a year when the QB was the league MVP runner-up.
First, let me throw out a defense of Cooper’s 2024. He spent the first six weeks of the year in Cleveland trying to catch passes from Deshaun Watson. If you’re not clear on why he wasn’t racking up stats during this period, feel free to give those game logs a Google, but Watson never broke 200 yards passing and twice failed to break 130. It was bleak.
He then got traded to Buffalo, and in his second game there suffered a wrist injury that cost him most of the next few weeks. Surgery was apparently recommended, but he wanted to stay with the team, so he refused, played, and was not particularly good. Basically, due to Cleveland being Cleveland and football being a violent sport, 2024 was a lost season.
But 2023 wasn’t: 72-1250-5.
Neither was 2022: 78-1160-9.
This guy is one year removed from back-to-back massive seasons. He’s a five-time Pro Bowler with six 1,000-yard seasons under his belt. And we’re taking him 50 picks behind Alec Pierce?
I know Cooper doesn’t have a job. That’s why he’s so cheap! But there are a ton of places that desperately need a WR of his caliber. Do you really think Mike Tomlin pinned his job security to Aaron Rodgers and then is going to go into the 2025 season with some combination of Calvin Austin or Roman Wilson lining up alongside DK Metcalf? How great would Cooper fit in Arizona? Either New York team? New England? Heck, healthy and back in Buffalo.
And look, he just turned 31. I’m not saying he’s going for 1,200 yards again. But WRs with 1,000-yard (even 800-yard) upside DO NOT EXIST in the 19th or 20th round. Last year in this range you were drafting guys like Luke McCaffrey, Greg Dortch, Kalif Raymond, AT Perry (genuinely don’t remember who that is), Tyler Boyd, Kendrick Bourne, and Jalin Hyatt. I’m not picking the bad ones; I’m copying them off a list of last year’s ADP.
Would you take him behind any of the guys above if he were in uniform anywhere? I wouldn’t. So, grab him now so that when people are drafting him in the 14th or 15th round come August, you can let him pass knowing you have a nice pile of him with 19th or 20th round draft equity.
If you made it this far, thanks for riding along through some deep cuts and undervalued names. Best Ball season is all about finding these sneaky pockets of value before the crowd catches on and the market corrects. We’re just getting started, too—throughout the rest of the offseason, I’ll be sharing more under-the-radar players, ADP risers, and actionable draft strategies as we get closer to kickoff. So keep an eye out for future editions, keep stacking that draft equity, and let’s get ready to dominate when the season finally gets here.