Preakness 2025: Sesquicentennial Running
The Bissett Perspective: The HRIS Impact, Horse insights, and Predictions
The 150th running of the Preakness Stakes is today (May 17th, 2025) with a 7:01 p.m. ET post time at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore.
Last year, I called it right: Seize the Gray would outpace Mystik Dan, the Derby champ. Now, as the 150th Preakness approaches, could a truly “clever” pick steal the spotlight once more? Since Justify’s crushing 1-5 favorite win in 2018, Preakness favorites have faced tougher odds, partly thanks to the Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Act. Stricter medication rules and longer recovery times have reshaped the game, making it harder for favorites to dominate.
This year’s field is stacked with fresh, rested talent eager to claim their place in Triple Crown history. Yes, the money line favorite Journalism leads the pack, also joined by Derby runners American Promise and Sandman, both looking to bounce back from muddy Churchill Downs performances. Local star Pay Billy is riding a hot streak, winning four of his last five races. Top trainers like Bob Baffert (Goal-Oriented), Todd Pletcher (River Thames), and Dwayne Lukas (American Promise) bring strong contenders, while Steven Asmussen’s Clever Again aims to add another Triple Crown win to his resume. With so much on the line, will Journalism finally break the recent streak of upsets, or is another surprise just around the corner?
A closer look at the horses:
Preakness Past Performance Sheet: Click Here
Goal-Oriented: Just 37 days removed from his debut, he’s undefeated with two wins so far. He runs best when he has clear space but might struggle with his post position, potentially getting pressed against the rail and forced to keep pace with this elite field of horses. Still, if he can get out front early, he has a real shot at pulling off an upset. With Hall of Fame trainer Baffert and a top jockey in the saddle, he’s well-equipped. Today’s fast track favors speed and smart positioning, making an early move crucial for his chances.
Journalism: Coming off a strong 2nd place in the Derby, he’s the favorite with Sovereignty skipping this race. Winning the Preakness after the Derby is tough due to short rest rules and recovery, but Journalism showed resilience in the Derby. The fast track and pace setup today might favor his stalking style, making him a serious contender.
American Promise: Finished far back in the Derby and hasn’t shown speed numbers to match the top runners here. He’ll need a flawless trip and perhaps a slower pace to stay relevant. The quick turnaround and deep field make this a steep climb for him.
Heart Of Honor: From the UAE, finished 2nd in his last race, but that was to Admire Daytona, a horse that finished dead last in the Kentucky Derby. Lacks the speed to stay with the leaders here.
Pay Billy: Took some time to break his maiden and mostly raced locally in Maryland, making him familiar with Baltimore’s course. This is his first graded stakes, so the step up in class and fierce competition will be a big challenge. The local crowd might root for him, but expect him to be more of a long shot here.
River Thames: Bred as a sprinter, he’s been stretched out in distance by trainer Todd Pletcher, but the extra distance could sap his stamina. He’s strong around a mile but the Preakness’s 1 3/16 miles may be just beyond his comfort zone. The fast early pace could either help him get a good spot or expose his bloodline limitations late.
Sandman: Showed strong closing speed before the Derby but his struggles at Churchill Downs continued in the muddy conditions. The Preakness’s shorter distance and fast track might play more to his strengths. He has the speed to contend, but may be better as a value bet for exotic wagers rather than win
Clever Again: Took a different path, focusing on physical maturity and stamina development under trainer Steven Asmussen. This patient approach could pay off in the longer Preakness race, where endurance and strength matter. He’s a horse to watch for a strong finish.
Gosger: A long shot with decent runs against lesser competition. He might stay close early but will likely fade as the stronger pedigrees and deeper talent pull away late. The tough pace and quick conditions will test him more than previous races.
The Bissett Perspective Predictions:
Winner: (8) Clever Again
Place: (2) Journalism
Show: (1) Goal-Oriented
Fourth: (7) Sandman