Betting Quarters w/ Grandpa, to Covering the Triple Crown
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby will take place Saturday (6:57 p.m. ET post time) at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky.
The transition from April to May is always a blast for me, since it combines two of my favorite things: the NFL Draft and the Kentucky Derby, which of course kicks off the Triple Crown. Last year's Triple Crown predictions went surprisingly well. I called Mystic Dan as a sleeper for the Derby, and he won! Then, I nailed a 1-2 finish in the Preakness, with Seize the Grey edging out Mystic Dan. And at the Belmont Stakes, I successfully predicted the top three: Dornoch, Mindframe, and Sierra Leone. I can't promise the same level of success this year, but I'm using the same strategy to predict these races again.
I rely on past performance sheets, which detail each horse's racing history. I especially look for "closing" horses. These are the ones that typically start near the back of the pack, but steadily move up, ultimately ending up in the winner's circle.
I'm going to break down each horse's past performances and share my thoughts on how the race might unfold for them. I've also included videos showcasing my findings in action, along with a detailed chart of post position performances and their historical results in the Derby.
Let's dive in and separate the contenders from the pretenders! And of course, make sure you scroll down to the bottom for my predictions for the 151st Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs! ```
2025 Kentucky Derby 151—Past Performance Sheet: Click Here
1. Citizen Bull (20-1)
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
What Does Past Performances Say?
This horse loves to run out front, but starting on the rail in the Kentucky Derby, with 18 other horses squeezing in, is a tough challenge. The one advantage is that the other front-runners (except for No. 3, Final Gambit) are all starting within the first seven post positions. This might make it easier for jockey Garcia Martin to get him out front early. However, as the Santa Anita video shows, the extra distance will likely be too much, and he'll be overtaken down the stretch.
2. Neoequos (30-1)
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, Stefania Farms, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, and Timothy Pinch
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Luis Saez
Another horse that likes to lead, but like No. 1, Citizen Bull, this one will probably fade down the stretch. "Neoequos" can be interpreted as "new horse," which is exactly what jockey Flavien Prat realized when Baeza entered the race. I think it's safe to trust the instincts of a jockey with over 9,000 career rides and $200 million in earnings – this isn't the horse you want to bet on.
3. Final Gambit (30-1)
Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Juddmonte's racing and breeding operations are world-class, and they don't mess around. Still, it's fair to question why this horse is in the race. He's never raced on dirt, with his four starts being on turf and synthetic surfaces, and his only race outside of maiden company was in March. Adding to the concern, the track will likely be muddy and slippery by race time. However, their closing ability in their only graded stakes suggests they fit the Derby contender mold, and it'll be tough to ignore them on the betting slips. Three races, three times in the money – it's hard to dismiss that, even if the competition is the toughest they've faced so far. Could we be seeing a second coming of Mystic Dan? Last year's winner was also overlooked and ran from the 3rd post. Definitely something to consider.
5. American Promise (30-1)
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Yes, D. Wayne Lucas is a legendary trainer with a ton of success in graded stakes races. However, this horse doesn't seem to have the same potential. This is their 10th start, and they haven't hit the board in any other graded stakes races. They might get about 20 seconds of fame by being out front at the start, but you'll need binoculars to see how far behind the winners they are at the finish line.
6. Admire Daytona (30-1)
Owner: Junko Kondo
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
The first of two horses making the international trip from Japan. I love the name, because if you're going to race in the States, it's ideal to admire the Great American Race (a nod to NASCAR). However, as the video below shows, maybe a more fitting name would be "The Last Samurai," because this horse has heart. When it looked like they'd be overtaken on the final turn, they fought back and kept the lead. What's also intriguing is that this horse has run at 1 3/16 miles, just 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Derby distance. Are we on the verge of history? Will the headlines read, "First Japanese Horse Wins Derby?" Possibly, but maybe that honor will go to the next horse on this list instead!
7. Luxor Cafe (15-1)
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: João Moreira
This Japanese runner earned points in the Japan series of qualifying races, winning the Fukuryu and Hyacinth Stakes. He comes to the Derby with four straight wins and is sired by 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Those Triple Crown genes have shown through multiple times and will be flying down the stretch as they close in on the finish line. One of my top contenders in this race.
8. Journalism (3-1)
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
The Kentucky Derby has seen a recent trend of upsets, with the favorite failing to win since Justify in 2018. Recent winners like Mystik Dan (18-1 in 2024), Mage (15-1 in 2023), Rich Strike (81-1 in 2022), and Country House (65-1 in 2019) have all been longshots with relatively high odds. For the 2025 Kentucky Derby, Journalism is the morning line favorite at 3-1, with other horses like Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) also considered among the top contenders. However, history suggests that a longshot could very well end up in the winner's circle.
Although everything points to this morning line favorite potentially bucking the trend of recent history, it becomes even more unlikely once you realize that it will be the first Derby win for both the trainer and jockey of this horse. Temper expectations; while they'll be in contention down the stretch, that final 1/8th of a mile will probably be the difference, and they're set to fall short of even making the board by the end of the race.
9. Burnham Square (12-1)
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Yes, this horse fits the closer mold, but with a grain of salt. They're not a true closer, as they'll probably settle in the middle of the pack. They'll have a good run, and might even be seen closing down the final stretch, but stronger competitors will overtake them at the end. Solid Top 8 finisher.
Bunham Square: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)
Owner: Two Eight Racing (Jayson Werth), Berry Family Racing, and Kaleta Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
At first glance, I really like this horse. They definitely fit the closer mold. However, I like Final Gambit a little more – maybe by a neck. The problem for both of them, though, is the level of competition. They're moving up to where the elite of the elite run, and they haven't quite tapped into that level of potential yet.
Flying Mohawk: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
12. East Avenue (20-1)
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manuel Franco
This horse is best described as a game of Chutes and Ladders. Every time he climbs, he seems to slide right back down. The buzz around this horse has been inconsistent since his eight-length win at Ellis Park last August. He followed that up with a win in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity, but then faltered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Risen Star Stakes. A narrow loss in the Blue Grass put him back in the Derby conversation, but as another need-the-lead type, I think he's outclassed here.
East Avenue warm up: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
13. Publisher (20-1)
Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
I kinda have the feeling that Publisher is Burnham Square's brother from another mother. They're nearly the same horse. The only difference? Publisher has never actually won a race in their seven starts. I suspect they'll be hanging around the middle of the pack for most of the race, feeling stagnant when the leaders fade, and getting passed by the late closers in the final stretch.
Publisher warm up: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
14. Tiztastic (20-1)
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
In the 2022 movie Top Gun: Maverick, there's a great line that describes what it's like to be in a dogfight: "It's not the plane, it's the pilot." Ultimately, in order to survive, it's the skills, talent, and instincts of the pilot that will determine the plane's fate. This is the perfect description for this entry. Not only do they fit the closer mold, but they fit the distance of the race as well. The further this horse has run, the better and stronger they become. He is the second entry in the race that has run the furthest distance of 1 3/16th miles, only 1/16th of a mile shorter. Just like the previous entry, Admire Daytona, this one also came out victorious. Now add in the "pilot" to the equation. Joel Rosario has survived a Derby once before when he piloted Orb to a 2013 victory. More significantly, he was also in the seat when he flew Tonalist (2014) and Sir Winston (2019) to the winner's circle in the Belmont Stakes. The significance? These are the two longest races of the Triple Crown. I avoided a crash and burn scenario with my predictions last year, and I'm looking to avoid that again with this contender pick.
15. Render Judgment (30-1)
Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
To everyone watching this colt race, they may be filling up a red solo cup in remembrance of the late Toby Keith, who dreamt about racing a horse in the Derby. I'm sure he'd wish he didn't know now that the horse sustained a quarter crack, making it more of a situation that "He Ain't Worth Missing" in this race. It would be more honorable to Toby if the minds at bay would Render their Judgment by simply raising a glass of whiskey for him, and pouring a beer for one of his horses.
Render Judgement warm up: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
16. Coal Battle (30-1)
Owner: Norman Stables
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
This is a tough one, as the horse has 8 starts with 5 wins, 4 consecutive, prior to his 3rd place finish in the Arkansas Derby. In that race, he seemed to be running on coal, while No. 17 Sandman and No. 13 Publisher were clearly equipped with nitrous as they sprinted past him down the stretch. It's important to note that was the 6th race in 6 months, nearly exactly 30 days apart. Will he be more refreshed this time around and regain his winning ways?
17. Sandman (6-1)
Owner: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: José Ortiz
Jockey Jose Ortiz, with over 17,000 races and 10 graded stakes wins this year (including a recent victory on Sandman), channels his inner James Hetfield as he rides to the thunderous rhythm of Metallica's "Enter Sandman." Imagine the opening of the Derby: a quiet guitar riff slowly building as the horses break from the gate. The tension mounts with each stride, mirroring the song's crescendo, until it explodes to the pounding of the drums. Sandman's stride widens, his speed picking up with every strike of Lars Ulrich's sticks on the snare drum, all the way up to that infamous first line, “Say your prayers!” And that's exactly what the other jockeys are doing, hoping they have enough gas in the tank to hold off Sandman's furious charge down the stretch. If you're gripping your ticket tight, waiting to cash in on the beast that's been hiding in the closet, under your bed, as the voices in your head begin to project outwardly as he closes in on the finish line... where the Sandman is delivering a legendary, top-3 finish... possibly even first place.
18. Sovereignty (5-1)
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
The one thing that stands out is how fitting the name of this horse truly is. In races where he is able to define his territory he runs with great power and authority. However, he does not do well in races where their are more horses, with equal amounts of power and authority surrounding him. This makes the derby trip a tough one for him to handle and he may be better suited to giving his all in a smaller field, and shorter distance like the Preakness.
19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Owner: Terry L. Stephens
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Buyer beware: This horse may be named "Chunk of Gold," but you might be buying a chunk of Fool's Gold! How can I say that when this horse has finished in the top two in all four of its races? Well, consider this: Yes, he ran once in 2024 and won. And yes, he's run a 1 3/16th race, making him the third horse in this Derby to do so. However, unlike the other two, he started to fade, while they were pulling ahead. That doesn't bode well against the other strong finishers in this race.
But here's the real deal-breaker: History says you shouldn't bet on a horse with this long of a layoff.
Winning the Kentucky Derby after a six-week break is rare, bucking conventional wisdom. Most modern Derby winners run a race within five weeks of the big day, suggesting recent experience is key.
Of course, there are exceptions:
Animal Kingdom (2011): Broke the trend with a six-week layoff.
Authentic (2020): Won with a six-week layoff, but that was in a weird, pandemic-delayed Derby in September.
So, is "Chunk of Gold" the next Animal Kingdom? Maybe. But are you willing to bet on it?
Chunk of Gold warm up: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
20. Owen Almighty (30-1)
Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Betting on Owen Almighty? You'll likely be owing your bookie an almighty debt! He's got no kick, and he'll leave you with empty pockets and kicking a can of sorrows to the ATM.
Owen Almighty warm up: Credit: (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
21. Baeza
Late Entry, Baeza.
Owner: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
When Derby-winning names like Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008) show up in your lineage, you've practically got a spot in the Derby locked up—even before another horse (Rodriguez) scratches. This horse is coming off a strong showing in the Santa Anita Derby, where he finished second to the Derby favorite, Journalism.
His first race was in December, a rude awakening where he finished nearly nine lengths off the pace. In January, he came in second to the aforementioned Rodriguez. Finally, in February, he broke his maiden and found himself in victory lane, setting up his Santa Anita run.
The thing that stands out is his experience with distance: three 1-mile races and one 1 1/8-mile race. I feel like that extra 1/8 of a mile is going to be too much. He'll either tire at the end or be passed by several of the late closers in that final stretch. It would be a great story – late entry, first to the stripe – but that's where the thought starts and stops with this one.
The Bissett Perspective Derby Picks!
With the track shaping up to be a muddy mess, we're not going to ignore the wisdom of Grandma, who religiously swore: never bet against a gray horse on any track, period. Well, this year, we're in luck! That means you've got two chances to bet on a gray, and both fit exactly what we're looking for. So break out your air drums, string up that air guitar, and belt out that "Enter Sandman" riff when he crosses the finish line victorious... inching out Luxor Café (the international sensation with the American Pharaoh bloodline), who holds on for a close second, as a boombastic finish between Tiztastic and Final Gambit rounds out the board.
Win: (17) Sandman
Place: (7) Luxor Café
Show: (14) Tiztastic
4th: (3) Final Gambit
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Lets 🙏 he doesn't meet his owner again after this race...
I’m not in total agreement with your picks, and do not appreciate you total lack of respect for my horse! I know that was intentional! LOL